Fed FOMC Meeting July 2026 - My Take

The oil shock has gone into reverse again, but the Fed's dilemma remains. Brent has swung from above $100 last week to around $90 as the US and Iran pause strikes and Oman mediates over Hormuz. June inflation cooled to 3.5% from 4.2% and core fell to 2.6%, yet payrolls rose just 57,000 and unemployment dipped to 4.2% only because people left the workforce. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.5%–3.75% for a fifth meeting, but markets price roughly 80% odds of a hike by September. Join us live for Kevin Warsh's second meeting as chair and what it means for your portfolio.

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0:00 Welcome: the Fed holds rates again
0:38 Three dissents — Logan, Hammack and Kashkari wanted a hike
1:17 Warsh's "family fight" and the five task forces
3:18 Oil, Iran and the shock the Fed can't control
4:52 "You said you'd be tough on inflation, but you've done nothing"
6:05 Landing the plane in fog: the end of forward guidance
8:03 Stripping out the shocks to find underlying inflation
9:16 What Fed funds futures say about the next hike
11:02 Jackson Hole, task forces and Marc Andreessen
13:42 Videos, membership and coaching with Mark Howe
20:08 Q&A begins: markets did not like his answers
22:01 FTSE 100 hits an all-time high as the chip rout bites
23:45 Will we get rate hikes this year?
28:05 Do US rates drive UK gilts more than domestic policy?
32:19 Emerging markets, or just developed?
35:16 How I actually invest, and my gilt shopping list
39:39 Levered core vs all-weather: my two core experiments
45:32 Wrap-up and Bank of England tomorrow

DISCLAIMER
All information is given for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Ramin does not provide recommendations and is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Figures that are quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

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